WHO WILL GET THERE FIRST?

A SpaceEves News Breakdown

For decades, Mars has been the dream.
Now, for the first time in history, multiple space agencies have real timelines, real spacecraft, and real astronauts preparing for the first human mission to the Red Planet.

So when are we going — and who will make the first footprint?

Let’s break it down.

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🕒 When Will Humans Actually Go to Mars?

The realistic window: 2035–2045

Based on NASA, ESA, SpaceX, and international planning cycles, the earliest credible human mission would be:

• NASA: around late 2030s

• SpaceX: optimistic target mid-2030s, realistic late 2030s

• China: 2040s, building long-term Mars architecture

• International crews: late 2030s–2040s depending on NASA-led missions

Why so far away?
Because sending humans to Mars requires:

• A 6–9 month journey each way

• Life support systems that work for 3 years

• Deep-space radiation protection

• Surface habitats + reusable ascent vehicles

• Mars-orbit fuel depots or pre-landed supplies

The tech is close — but not finished.

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🌎 Who Will Go First? The 3 Possible First Crews

1️⃣ NASA + International Partners (Most Likely)

NASA’s long-term roadmap is clear:

• Complete the Artemis Moon program

• Prove long-term survival in deep space

• Test nuclear propulsion and Mars transfer vehicles

• Launch a four-person crew to Mars in the late 2030s

The first Mars crew would likely include:

• 2 NASA astronauts

• 1 ESA astronaut

• 1 JAXA/CSA/partner astronaut

NASA has publicly stated:
“The first Mars crew will be international.”

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2️⃣ SpaceX (The Wildcard — But Very Real)

Elon Musk’s stated goal: “Send humans to Mars by 2030–2040.”

Starship is already:

• The world’s largest rocket

• Designed for planet-to-planet transport

• Capable of landing 100+ tons on Mars

A SpaceX-first landing would likely be:

• A small private crew of 4–6

• Highly trained mission specialists

• Supported by dozens of pre-positioned cargo Starships

If SpaceX solves the fuel-production problem on Mars, they could become:

The first company in history to land humans on another planet.

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3️⃣ China (Quiet but Extremely Focused)

China is building a patient long-term Mars program:

• Nuclear-powered spacecraft

• Heavy-lift rockets

• Robotic Mars sample-return missions

• Full training pipeline for Mars crews

Their target: a human Mars landing in the 2040s.

If China becomes the first nation with a Moon base, their Mars capability accelerates dramatically — this is why the U.S. is worried.

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🚩 So… Who Will Win the Mars Race?

• NASA has the experience and international network

• SpaceX has the hardware and speed

• China has discipline, money, and long-term planning

Right now, the most realistic first landing looks like:

👉 A NASA-led mission with SpaceX hardware

or

👉 A SpaceX private crew mission supported by NASA partnerships

Either way, humanity will not go alone — it will be a global effort.

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🟥 What Will the First Crew Do on Mars?

The 1st human team on Mars will:

• Build the first surface habitat

• Test in-situ fuel production (making methane + oxygen from the Martian atmosphere)

• Drill for water ice

• Search for ancient life signatures

• Explore the landscape using pressurized rovers

• Prepare the surface for future crews

They will stay 30 days to 18 months, depending on the mission design.

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🔥 FINAL THOUGHT

Humanity’s first Mars mission will define the next century.
It will be dangerous, expensive, and unlike anything we have ever attempted —
but it will also be the moment we become a multi-planet species.

And the race has already begun.